I'm doing this one differently:
If yes: Ukraine will be the victim of an amphibious assault with zero NATO response, and only minor US involvement.
If yes: Putin has betrayed his long standing coalition partners, China, and Iran.
If yes: eventually, Russia must fight on NATO's side against China, and her ally, Iran, and Syria.
If no: Putin will continue probing NATO responses via sedition against Ukrainian Naval Vessels.
If no: NATO will begin to condemn Russia as, "aggressive".
If no: Russia will shut down the Caspian corridor by cutting off Ukraine in the Black Sea, and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in the Caspian Sea Corridor.
I sincerely doubt a new Nazi/Russian Mutual Non Aggression Pact has been made between Russia and the US.